U.S. Security Assurances to the Gulf States : Navigating an Era of Strategic Competition
تاريخ النشر: 24/09/2025
الناشر: مركز تريندز للبحوث والاستشارات
نبذة الناشر:The stability of the Gulf region has long been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy, with Washington providing security assurances through military presence, arms sales, and strategic partnerships. These assurances have helped maintain regional security, protect vital energy flows, and counter security threats, including Iranian-backed proxies and terrorist organizations. However, ...the strategic landscape is evolving. The United States has become less dependent on Gulf energy, while its global priorities have shifted toward great power competition, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. These changes, along with domestic debates in the U.S. over military spending and overseas commitments have raised fundamental questions about the future of Washington’s security role in the Gulf. At the same time, regional actors are recalibrating their strategies, seeking alternative security arrangements, and deepening ties with other global powers.
This paper examines five key scenarios that could drive significant changes in U.S. security assurances to the Gulf. Among them, the most consequential would be Gulf states aligning with a peer competitor such as China or Russia. A majority of the experts interviewed identified this scenario as a potential turning point in U.S. security policy, as growing Gulf-China defense cooperation, technology partnerships, or arms purchases could prompt Washington to curtail military support or reassess its long-term commitments. The second major scenario is a U.S. war with a peer competitor, such as China or Russia, which could lead to a reduction in Washington’s ability to uphold security guarantees in the Gulf. While some experts argued that a U.S.-China conflict would divert resources away from the region, others suggested that it might lead to an increased American military presence in the Gulf as part of a broader effort to secure global supply chains and energy markets. إقرأ المزيد