The Arctic : Rising Tensions and Evolving Geopolitics in a Thawing Frontier
تاريخ النشر: 01/01/2024
الناشر: مركز تريندز للبحوث والاستشارات
نبذة الناشر:Although familiar with geopolitical competition, strategic contestation in the Arctic entered a new, more confrontational phase following the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Previously regarded as a zone of peace and exceptionalism, the foundations of Arctic exceptionalism were destabilized by the annexation and further eroded in February 2022 ...when Moscow initiated its war against Ukraine. In response to Russia’s assertiveness, the Western Arctic states, known as the Arctic 7, suspended their cooperation with Russia in the Arctic Council and embarked upon a large-scale, coordinated effort to revitalize their military assets and combat readiness in the Arctic and beyond. They also revisited their strategic alliances, culminating in the accession of Finland and Sweden—two historically non-aligned states—to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Concurrently with this rapidly evolving strategic environment, the Arctic’s significance as a geopolitical hotspot has increased due to the convergence of two other unfolding factors: climate change and technological innovation. In a significant yet underappreciated sense, geostrategic competition in the Arctic was likely to resurge irrespective of the events of 2014 and 2022 in Ukraine, primarily because increased interest in the region has lacked, and continues to lack, a comprehensive regulatory framework capable of governing the presence and activities of both state and non-state actors. The war in Ukraine only exacerbated pre-existing tensions and brought them to the forefront.
Global warming and the subsequent melting of ice in the region have extended the availability of the Arctic’s maritime lanes each year, while simultaneously making the region’s vast resources more accessible. This increased accessibility has been further enhanced by recent advancements in satellite, navigational, communication, surveying, and shipping technologies, which have made it easier, safer, and cheaper for commercial actors to establish a presence in the region. This newfound accessibility has also drawn interest from non-regional states, such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which have utilized various tools, including foreign direct investment (FDI) and technological cooperation, to secure their access to the region’s vast resources and its potential as a maritime shortcut between major global trading hubs. These efforts are part of these states’ broader strategies to diversify their trading networks and supply chains for critical resources, an objective aligned with the ambitions of regional states—the so-called Arctic 8—all of whom seek to capitalize on the Arctic’s economic and commercial potential to enhance their national economic growth prospects. إقرأ المزيد